Application of open tools and datasets to probabilistic modeling of road traffic disruptions due to earthquake damage     

Catarina Costa  Rui Figueiredo  Vitor Silva  Paolo Bazzurro 《地震工程与结构动力学》2020,49(12):1236-1255

The disruption of a transportation network can have a high social and economic impact on the welfare of a society, as it can significantly affect the daily routines of a community. Although many studies have focused on the estimation of physical risk in the components that compose these networks, only a limited number have analyzed their interconnections and impact in the traffic flow. The present study analyzes how earthquake damage can disrupt the road network in an urban environment, and how this will influence the ability of the population to travel. Traffic due to daily commutes is modeled for different layouts of the network, corresponding to possible disruptions caused by earthquake damage. The duration and length of each trip were calculated both for the undamaged network conditions and for the disrupted network. The increase in the median duration and length of each trip allows estimating the economic loss for each event due to drivers' delay. By combining the probability of a specific road being blocked with its number of users, the average number of affected vehicles was estimated, and the most critical segments identified. The methodology was applied to a case study concerning the road network of the area around the Italian city of Messina in Sicily. The results were calculated for both a repetition of the well-known historical event of 1908 and a set of simulated earthquakes consistent with the national probabilistic seismic hazard model of Italy.  相似文献   

Multimodal water age distributions and the challenge of complex hydrological landscapes     

Nicolas B. Rodriguez  Paolo Benettin  Julian Klaus 《水文研究》2020,34(12):2707-2724

  相似文献   

Assessment of calanchi and rill–interrill erosion susceptibilities using terrain analysis and geostochastics: A case study in the Oltrepo Pavese,Northern Apennines,Italy     

Alberto Bosino  Paolo Giordani  Geraldine Quénéhervé  Michael Maerker 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(12):3025-3041

Soil erosion is one of the most important environmental problems distributed worldwide. In the last decades, numerous studies have been published on the assessment of soil erosion and the related processes and forms using empirical, conceptual and physically based models. For the prediction of the spatial distribution, more and more sophisticated stochastic modelling approaches have been proposed – especially on smaller spatial scales such as river basins. In this work, we apply a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to evaluate badlands (calanchi) and rill–interrill (sheet erosion) areas in the Oltrepo Pavese (Northern Apennines, Italy). The aim of the work is to assess the important environmental predictors that influence calanchi and rill–interrill erosion at the regional scale. We used 13 topographic parameters derived from a 12 m digital elevation model (TanDEM-X) and data on the lithology and land use. Additional information about the vegetation is introduced through the normalized difference vegetation index based on remotely sensed data (ASTER images). The results are presented in the form of susceptibility maps showing the spatial distribution of the occurrence probability for calanchi and rill–interrill erosion. For the validation of the MaxEnt model results, a support vector machine approach was applied. The models show reliable results and highlight several locations of the study area that are potentially prone to future soil erosion. Thus, coping and mitigation strategies may be developed to prevent or fight the soil erosion phenomenon under consideration. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Sedimentary and geochemical characterization of Middle–Late Miocene formations in the Neogene Tsugaru Basin,Japan by means of DTH27‐1 well sediment analysis     

Paolo Martizzi  Shun Chiyonobu  Hiroyuki Arato 《Island Arc》2020,29(1)

Middle–Late Miocene age siliceous formations outcropping along the northwestern side of Honshu Island are considered prospective source rocks for hydrocarbons. An analysis of geophysical, sedimentological, and geochemical properties is essential to evaluate the formations' source potential, and to understand the factors that determined the accumulation and preservation of organic matter. This study investigates the Middle–Late Miocene geological record of the Tsugaru back‐arc basin, located in the western part of Aomori prefecture, through an analysis of a 200 m long portion of a core from the DTH27‐1 well; this core is composed of the diatomaceous siltstones of the Akaishi Formation and the siliceous mudstones of the Odoji Formation. Sedimentological and geophysical characterization showed that the Akaishi Formation's diatomaceous siltstones are mostly massive and bioturbated, have low magnetic susceptibility, and demonstrate moderate natural radioactivity. Although the Odoji Formation's siliceous mudstones are massive, they have exceedingly low magnetic susceptibility and high natural radioactivity. Geochemical data from a Rock‐Eval Pyrolysis such as total organic carbon and generative potential (S1 + S2) revealed that, in the Tsugaru area, only the Odoji Formation is a likely prospective source rock for hydrocarbons. On the other hand, T_max values indicate that both the formations are thermally immature for generating hydrocarbons. The difference between the Akaishi and Odoji Formation in the sedimentological facies, in terms of the degree of bioturbation and the organic carbon content, indicates variations in lithological properties, such as porosity and grain size; moreover, this difference indicates a variation in the paleo‐oxygenation of bottom waters, with the transition from oxygen‐deficient conditions in the Middle Miocene to the more oxygenated conditions in the Late Miocene. Both the lithological and paleo‐environmental factors possibly influenced the organic richness in the two formations.  相似文献   

Conditional spectrum bidirectional record selection for risk assessment of 3D structures using scalar and vector IMs     

Mohsen Kohrangi  Paolo Bazzurro  Dimitrios Vamvatsikos 《地震工程与结构动力学》2019,48(9):1066-1082

Several proposals are explored for the hazard and intensity measure (IM) consistent selection of bidirectional ground motions to assess the performance of 3D structural models. Recent studies have shown the necessity of selecting records that thoroughly represent the seismicity at the site of interest, as well as the usefulness of efficient IMs capable of estimating the response of buildings with low scatter. However, the advances realized are mostly geared towards the structural analysis of 2D models. Few are the combined record, and IM selection approaches suggested expressly for nonlinear dynamic analysis of 3D structural models, especially when plan asymmetry and torsion sensitivity come into play. Conditional spectrum selection is leveraged and expanded here to offer a suite of approaches based on both scalar and vector IMs that convey information from two orthogonal horizontal components of the ground motion. Applications on multiple 3D building models highlight the importance of (a) employing the same IM for both record selection and response assessment and (b) maintaining hazard consistency in both horizontal components, when using either a scalar or a vector IM. All tested approaches that respect these conditions can be viable, yet the one based on the geometric mean of multiple spectral ordinates from both components over a period range seems to hold the most promise for general use.  相似文献   

Introduction to dynamics of stone arches     

Paolo Clemente 《地震工程与结构动力学》1998,27(5):513-522

The dynamic analysis of stone arches, made up of rigid voussoir laid dray, can be performed in two phases. First of all the value of the horizontal acceleration necessary to turn the structure into a mechanism and the corresponding mechanism must be determined. Then the dynamic behaviour of such a mechanism under a given acceleration time history can be studied. The first step is a static matter. The second one requires the solution of the non-linear equation of motion of the one-degree-of-freedom system in which the arch is turned. In this paper an iteration procedure is proposed to find out the mechanism. Then the structural behaviour of the mechanism is analysed. Both free and forced vibrations are investigated and the study is limited to the first-half cycle of vibration. Damping is not considered and sliding between the blocks at the hinge sections is not allowed. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Debris-flow Indicator for an early warning system in the Aosta valley region     

Ponziani  Michel  Pogliotti  Paolo  Stevenin  Hervé  Ratto  Sara Maria 《Natural Hazards》2020,104(2):1819-1839

Natural Hazards - Aosta Valley, an Alpine region in north-western Italy, has an early warning system (EWS) that issues hydrogeological alerts based on hydrological modelling and rainfall thresholds...  相似文献   

Cave clastic sediments as a tool for refining the study of human occupation of prehistoric sites: insights from the cave site of La Cala (Cilento,southern Italy)          下载免费PDF全文

Ivan Martini  Annamaria Ronchitelli  Simona Arrighi  Giulia Capecchi  Stefano Ricci  Sem Scaramucci  Vincenzo Spagnolo  Paolo Gambassini  Adriana Moroni 《第四纪科学杂志》2018,33(5):586-596

  相似文献   

Sea and shores: New functional spaces: Association of Italian Geographers (AGel) Conference,Genoa, 19–20 February 1985     

Paolo Fabbri 《Marine Policy》1985,9(3):242-243

  相似文献   

Late Holocene sea-level changes in the northwest Tuamotu islands, French Polynesia   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Paolo Antonio Pirazzoli  Lucien Franois Montaggioni 《Quaternary Research》1986,25(3)

Field surveys of several sea-level indicators (exposed in situ reef framework, conglomerates, coral colonies and Tridacna shells in a growth position, sea-corrosion notches) carried out on six atolls from the NW Tuamotus (Mataiva, Rangiroa, Arutua, Kaukura, Apataki and Takapoto) and data from four subsurface boreholes drilled through Mataiva show that during the late Holocene mean sea level (MSL) reached a maximum elevation at approximately + 0.9 m. It remained above the present MSL from between 6000 and 5500 yr B.P. until at least 1200 yr B.P. Human settlements on the atolls were extremely unlikely and probably impossible throughout this time. The area investigated seems to have been tectonically quite stable during the late Holocene. A local curve of MSL variations may be representative of the regional eustatic pattern.  相似文献